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Iran Sanctions: The Self-Defeating Logic of Waivers

Iran Sanctions: The Self-Defeating Logic of Waivers The U.S. administration is highlighting reports that Iran’s oil exports significantly dropped in November. Officials explain the drop as a direct result of the new U.S. sanctions, which is true, but add that the decline in November is an example of the effect that sanctions [...]

Where Do Iran Sanctions Fit in the Global Strategic Game?

Where Do Iran Sanctions Fit in the Global Strategic Game? There is no doubt that sanctions, and waivers, are intrinsically strategic. By definition, the purpose of sanctions is to achieve a pre-calculated effect, favorable to those who impose them. In the case of sanctions on Iran, there are two indisputable facts: The [...]

Is the Fluctuation in Oil Prices Helpful?

Is the Fluctuation in Oil Prices Helpful? Crude prices rallied robustly from April through September, despite a strong dollar. Usually, when the greenback strengthens, oil prices weaken. The break from the pattern demonstrates that investors reacted too positively to the possibility that President Donald Trump would reintroduce sanctions on Iran, and responded [...]

How Many Hidden Barrels Has Iran Smuggled Under Sanctions?

How Many Hidden Barrels Has Iran Smuggled Under Sanctions? In this bulletin, we have repeatedly described the arsenal of tactics Iran employs to avoid sanctions. One very effective tactic is to hide a part of Iran’s crude exports by turning off the tracking signals on tankers. It was very difficult for us [...]

A Game Changer is Evolving on Europe’s Energy Map

A Game Changer is Evolving on Europe’s Energy Map The most important development, potentially in decades, in the global energy map quietly took place in October. Construction work on the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) began for the 105 kilometer offshore pipeline section. The physical offshore pipeline installation is planned to be carried [...]